APN posted an analysis maintaining that the recently-elected Bibi is "susceptible to pressure."
By David Corn | May 18, 2009 11:06 AM
Can President Barack Obama make any progress to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while the Israeli government is led by Binyamin Netanyahu, who is in Washington this week to meet with Obama and who has apparently never used the phrase "two-state solution"?
The folks at Americans for Peace Now are optimistic. Really. The group posted an analysis maintaining that the recently-elected Bibi is "susceptible to pressure." Why? Well, after two months in office, his approval ratings are moving in the direction of that of pork in a kosher restaurant:
His first fifty days in office have not been successful. The media criticized the manner in which he constructed his government and depicted it as too large, wasteful and poorly staffed. Then Netanyahu flip-flopped on the budget and now he is perceived as putting at risk Israel's relations with the United States - its chief national security asset.
It is unsurprising, therefore, that most Israelis are unhappy with Netanyahu's performance: 52% disapprove of his performance as prime minister according to a Friday Haaretz poll. Only 28% of those polled said they were satisfied with Netanyahu. Only 27% said they think Netanyahu is a better prime minister than his disgraced predecessor, Ehud Olmert.
Even more significantly, a solid majority, 57% said that Netanyahu should agree to a two-state solution when he meets with President Obama Monday. Not more than 35% disagreed. A full 40% of Likud supporters, Netanyahu's hard line support-base, said that he should say yes to Obama on the two-state solution.
That's some accomplishment--dissatisfying 72 percent of the Israeli public in seven weeks' time. And Netanyahu, to an extent, is held hostage by Obama. If the US president were to issue public remarks hinting that Netanyahu was being unreasonable, it would probably be a significant political blow for the Israeli PM. Consequently, Obama does have leverage. And he should use it.
Obama has already indicated he's willing to talk (somewhat) frankly about Netanyahu's intransigence. At his second prime-time White House press conference, Obama said that after Netanyahu's electoral victory the Mideast peace process was "not easier than it was." He's obviously not predisposed against hitting Netanyahu with a rolled-up newspaper in public--even if gently. And if any public wrist-slapping does emerge out of Obama's talks with Netanyahu, it will sting the Israeli leader at home.
Let me finish up with more from those Peace Now optimists, who this time around might actually have political reason for hope:
The good news about Netanyahu's visit to Washington is that he comes here quite "pressurable." It is both because he's weak domestically and because many Israelis would actually like to see him changing his positions under pressure.
Right wing Israeli politicians once believed that they can score popularity points domestically if they demonstrate national honor by standing up to American presidents. Israelis and their leaders know better now. With hemorrhaging popularity, Netanyahu will not want to be portrayed in Israel as jeopardizing Israel's relationship with Washington.
Netanyahu wants his visit to Washington to be a success. To portray it as a successful visit, he may be willing to demonstrate flexibility. The question is whether the Obama administration would be able to follow up on the narrow openings that Netanyahu may offer on Monday and broaden those cracks to push through them a diplomatic breakthrough.
When it comes to the Middle East, Obama can easily bolster his own hope for progress with a healthy dose of pressure--it's bad cop time, Mr. President--especially now that Netanyahu (and his obstructionism) appears vulnerable.
Can President Barack Obama make any progress to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while the Israeli government is led by Binyamin Netanyahu, who is in Washington this week to meet with Obama and who has apparently never used the phrase "two-state solution"?
The folks at Americans for Peace Now are optimistic. Really. The group posted an analysis maintaining that the recently-elected Bibi is "susceptible to pressure." Why? Well, after two months in office, his approval ratings are moving in the direction of that of pork in a kosher restaurant:
His first fifty days in office have not been successful. The media criticized the manner in which he constructed his government and depicted it as too large, wasteful and poorly staffed. Then Netanyahu flip-flopped on the budget and now he is perceived as putting at risk Israel's relations with the United States - its chief national security asset.
It is unsurprising, therefore, that most Israelis are unhappy with Netanyahu's performance: 52% disapprove of his performance as prime minister according to a Friday Haaretz poll. Only 28% of those polled said they were satisfied with Netanyahu. Only 27% said they think Netanyahu is a better prime minister than his disgraced predecessor, Ehud Olmert.
Even more significantly, a solid majority, 57% said that Netanyahu should agree to a two-state solution when he meets with President Obama Monday. Not more than 35% disagreed. A full 40% of Likud supporters, Netanyahu's hard line support-base, said that he should say yes to Obama on the two-state solution.
That's some accomplishment--dissatisfying 72 percent of the Israeli public in seven weeks' time. And Netanyahu, to an extent, is held hostage by Obama. If the US president were to issue public remarks hinting that Netanyahu was being unreasonable, it would probably be a significant political blow for the Israeli PM. Consequently, Obama does have leverage. And he should use it.
Obama has already indicated he's willing to talk (somewhat) frankly about Netanyahu's intransigence. At his second prime-time White House press conference, Obama said that after Netanyahu's electoral victory the Mideast peace process was "not easier than it was." He's obviously not predisposed against hitting Netanyahu with a rolled-up newspaper in public--even if gently. And if any public wrist-slapping does emerge out of Obama's talks with Netanyahu, it will sting the Israeli leader at home.
Let me finish up with more from those Peace Now optimists, who this time around might actually have political reason for hope:
The good news about Netanyahu's visit to Washington is that he comes here quite "pressurable." It is both because he's weak domestically and because many Israelis would actually like to see him changing his positions under pressure.
Right wing Israeli politicians once believed that they can score popularity points domestically if they demonstrate national honor by standing up to American presidents. Israelis and their leaders know better now. With hemorrhaging popularity, Netanyahu will not want to be portrayed in Israel as jeopardizing Israel's relationship with Washington.
Netanyahu wants his visit to Washington to be a success. To portray it as a successful visit, he may be willing to demonstrate flexibility. The question is whether the Obama administration would be able to follow up on the narrow openings that Netanyahu may offer on Monday and broaden those cracks to push through them a diplomatic breakthrough.
When it comes to the Middle East, Obama can easily bolster his own hope for progress with a healthy dose of pressure--it's bad cop time, Mr. President--especially now that Netanyahu (and his obstructionism) appears vulnerable.
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