Last Chance - by Dov Weissglas
The coming days are a final chance to stop or, at the very least to slow down, Israel's political setback. From the day that Arafat died and the Palestinian Authority desisted from terrorism, its standing in the world has only strengthened. The demand for independence, for a demilitarized state within the 1967 borders (with agreed border revisions) with East Jerusalem as its capital, is accepted by nearly all the countries of the world, and it will almost certainly win sweeping recognition by the UN General Assembly in September.
The coming days are a final chance to stop or, at the very least to slow down, Israel's political setback. From the day that Arafat died and the Palestinian Authority desisted from terrorism, its standing in the world has only strengthened. The demand for independence, for a demilitarized state within the 1967 borders (with agreed border revisions) with East Jerusalem as its capital, is accepted by nearly all the countries of the world, and it will almost certainly win sweeping recognition by the UN General Assembly in September.
A political agreement is still possible, but the Palestinians are growing stronger and Israel is growing weaker. The political equation is changing for the worse, and an arrangement that is possible at present will no longer be attainable tomorrow.
The Palestinian Authority is utilizing its improving standing keenly. Despite the enormous diplomatic effort that has been invested by the State of Israel, the world is not trying to disabuse the Palestinians of their intentions. The PA also began reconciliation talks with Hamas without bothering to demand that Hamas first accept Quartet's threshold conditions and without worrying about the world's reaction. The Israeli effort, which was rather plaintive, to get the world to condemn and even to boycott the Palestinian Authority, failed to win much attention. And when Israel hastily withheld the Palestinians' tax funds with cries of "Hamas is coming," the European Union quickly stepped in to provide the PA with the missing funds and to pressure Israel to reverse its decision.
Emboldened by those political successes and the large support they have received, the Palestinians gaze on at a nervous and stammering Israel that has been painted into a corner and which has sent emissaries around the world begging their interlocutors to "tell them."
The current leadership of the Palestinian Authority is the best leadership it has had from Israel's perspective ever since the PA was formed. It is reasonable and responsible; it supports a political arrangement on the basis of the parameters that have been known for the past ten years; it is attentive to world opinion; it has introduced in the territories under its control good administrative and economic regulations; and most importantly, it is committed, both in word and in deed, to preventing terrorism. It has done so successfully.
But the Palestinian politicians also have a public at home. And the Palestinian public, just like every public that is not directly responsible for its fate, is always going to be more radical and demanding than its leadership. The Palestinian public, which senses its increasing power and which sees Israel squirming and growing weaker, will ultimately force its leadership (which is weak to begin with) to embrace impossible political positions.
For example, the nearly worldwide recognition of Israel's right to retain the major settlement blocs (Bush's letter from 2004) has been eroded and has been reduced to "slight border revisions." The demand (right) of return, which every reasonable Palestinian realizes and has admitted is not in the least feasible, is now resurging with full force and, frighteningly, with full seriousness too.
Abbas and Fayyad, moderate and practical leaders, will be forced either to take more extremist positions or to step down. As such, the chances of reaching an agreement will disappear altogether.
The contemporary Palestinian adversary is different. He keenly understands that suicide bombing attacks, no matter how painful they are for the Israelis, are a national catastrophe. The Palestinian has realized the enormous strength that inheres in unarmed resistance. A provocative mass demonstration by unarmed people that is met with gunfire by soldiers or policemen, the sight of the dead and the injured, the cries of fear and pain--all of those have become a powerful political weapon. The weakening Israel will be forced to face increasing numbers of incidents of that sort, as the events of the last number of days demonstrate.
The Israeli excuse that we have no one to talk to and nothing to talk about is untrue. For the time being. We do have with whom to talk and we have what to talk about. But if no Israeli initiative is taken immediately, that slogan will soon become true. Very soon. Only sincere negotiations on the basis of the parameters that are known to everyone, as long as that is still possible, are liable to stop this lethal process. As a byproduct to this initiative, it is also likely to prevent unilateral recognition and will scuttle the abhorrent reconciliation with Hamas. All of that for the price of negotiations. But they need to be begun immediately.
(Published in Yedioth Ahronoth, May 18, p. 25, by Dov Weissglas, former top advisor to Ariel Sharon - translation by Israel News Today)
The Palestinian Authority is utilizing its improving standing keenly. Despite the enormous diplomatic effort that has been invested by the State of Israel, the world is not trying to disabuse the Palestinians of their intentions. The PA also began reconciliation talks with Hamas without bothering to demand that Hamas first accept Quartet's threshold conditions and without worrying about the world's reaction. The Israeli effort, which was rather plaintive, to get the world to condemn and even to boycott the Palestinian Authority, failed to win much attention. And when Israel hastily withheld the Palestinians' tax funds with cries of "Hamas is coming," the European Union quickly stepped in to provide the PA with the missing funds and to pressure Israel to reverse its decision.
Emboldened by those political successes and the large support they have received, the Palestinians gaze on at a nervous and stammering Israel that has been painted into a corner and which has sent emissaries around the world begging their interlocutors to "tell them."
The current leadership of the Palestinian Authority is the best leadership it has had from Israel's perspective ever since the PA was formed. It is reasonable and responsible; it supports a political arrangement on the basis of the parameters that have been known for the past ten years; it is attentive to world opinion; it has introduced in the territories under its control good administrative and economic regulations; and most importantly, it is committed, both in word and in deed, to preventing terrorism. It has done so successfully.
But the Palestinian politicians also have a public at home. And the Palestinian public, just like every public that is not directly responsible for its fate, is always going to be more radical and demanding than its leadership. The Palestinian public, which senses its increasing power and which sees Israel squirming and growing weaker, will ultimately force its leadership (which is weak to begin with) to embrace impossible political positions.
For example, the nearly worldwide recognition of Israel's right to retain the major settlement blocs (Bush's letter from 2004) has been eroded and has been reduced to "slight border revisions." The demand (right) of return, which every reasonable Palestinian realizes and has admitted is not in the least feasible, is now resurging with full force and, frighteningly, with full seriousness too.
Abbas and Fayyad, moderate and practical leaders, will be forced either to take more extremist positions or to step down. As such, the chances of reaching an agreement will disappear altogether.
The contemporary Palestinian adversary is different. He keenly understands that suicide bombing attacks, no matter how painful they are for the Israelis, are a national catastrophe. The Palestinian has realized the enormous strength that inheres in unarmed resistance. A provocative mass demonstration by unarmed people that is met with gunfire by soldiers or policemen, the sight of the dead and the injured, the cries of fear and pain--all of those have become a powerful political weapon. The weakening Israel will be forced to face increasing numbers of incidents of that sort, as the events of the last number of days demonstrate.
The Israeli excuse that we have no one to talk to and nothing to talk about is untrue. For the time being. We do have with whom to talk and we have what to talk about. But if no Israeli initiative is taken immediately, that slogan will soon become true. Very soon. Only sincere negotiations on the basis of the parameters that are known to everyone, as long as that is still possible, are liable to stop this lethal process. As a byproduct to this initiative, it is also likely to prevent unilateral recognition and will scuttle the abhorrent reconciliation with Hamas. All of that for the price of negotiations. But they need to be begun immediately.
(Published in Yedioth Ahronoth, May 18, p. 25, by Dov Weissglas, former top advisor to Ariel Sharon - translation by Israel News Today)
Email a friend
twitter
facebook
feed
Leave a comment