My response to Goldberg: Don't Shoot the Tweeter [UPDATED]

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Prominent journalist Jeffrey Goldberg doesn't like a tweet I sent out yesterday. Here is the tweet: "Haaretz WikiLeaks exclusive: Israel ruled out military option on Iran years ago (so what about that Goldberg spin?) | http://bit.ly/ffANEa" (119 characters, of which 30 characters are devoted to Goldberg).

For people who might not instantly know what this is about, the Haaretz link is already there, and the "Goldberg spin" is a reference to Goldberg's extremely controversial article "The Point of No Return," published in August 2010, in which he argued that there was a good chance that Israel would launch a military strike against Iran in the next 12 months, unless the U.S. takes decisive action to deal with Iran itself.
 
Goldberg clearly had no problem identifying the reference, and he is apparently upset about it - a level of thin-skinnedness that is surprising given how much controversy the article provoked in the first place.  His response via his blog on the Atlantic didn't answer the question I raised but went after me personally and with a high degree of snark (in 1158 characters).  He implies, among other things, that (a) I am naïve, (b) my analysis may not be worthy of Peace Now, and (c) oddly, that I may not actually be the director of policy and government relations at Americans for Peace Now (he finds the claim dubious enough that he puts my title into quotes).
 
All of this poses something of a dilemma for me.  I of course want to respond, but I don't want to stoop to snark and I'd rather not get into a public fight with a prominent journalist who, while I often don't agree with him, I still respect.  After careful consideration I've concluded that the best response is an open letter to Goldberg, which I will endeavor to keep as snark- and sarcasm-free as possible under the circumstances.
 
Dear Mr. Goldberg,
 
I take seriously the issues you raised in your blogpost, and would like to respond to them one by one.
 
First, let me assure you that I really am the director of policy and government relations at Americans for Peace Now and have been for almost 5 years. Don't believe me? Check our website (www.peacenow.org - easy to find).  Google me.  Or ask any of the many professional acquaintances we have in common - we swim in a small foreign policy pool.  No need to waste quotation marks or call in the NGO "title police" to report that someone is impersonating an NGO staffer (the Title Police, if they existed, would of course have to be led by Michael Palin and John Cleese).
 
Second, about that tweet.  Let me make one thing clear: All I intended to do was raise what I thought - and still think - is a legitimate and obvious question: how does this new information impact people's understanding of your very controversial article?  I respectfully suggest that the challenge here is not my tweet, but the new WikiLeaks info itself, and that you would do well to actually deal with the questions the new info raise. 
 
Indeed, I would (again, respectfully) suggest that the "questions" you pose to me in your post (the quotation marks here imply that these were not truly meant as questions but as rhetorical flourishes) betray just how uncomfortable a situation the new WikiLeaks information puts you in.  I can sympathize - you wrote a long article suggesting, pretty categorically and based on your first-hand (and almost entirely unsourced) information, that there is a better than 50-50 chance that Israel will bomb Iran by September 2011.  And here we have other first-hand secret info that seems to suggest something else entirely.  I would like to see you take a look at the new information and explain what you think it means in light of your article. 

Finally, I am quite pleased to answer your two questions, even if you didn't mean them as real questions:
 
Q: Do I believe that Israeli defense officials always tell the truth to American officials about their operational planning?
 
A: No I don't. As a former US diplomat, I am actually 100% positive they don't, based on first-hand experience.  
 
But I also know that the not-telling-the-truth-detector (aka the NTTTD, so named by me to avoid the word "lie", which in diplomacy is avoided, especially when dealing with close allies) is generally set off when officials - Israeli or other - say things that are clearly designed to support/promote their agenda.  So, for example, if an Israeli defense official told me now or 5 years ago that "we will have to attack Iran soon if the US doesn't act first" -- that would set off the NTTTD, because it sure sounds like an effort to manipulate the U.S. into doing what Israel wants (through threats).
 
Conversely, when Israeli officials say things that actually conflict with the Israeli public agenda - like conceding that they have little idea where Iran is in terms of its nuclear program or that they have concluded that a strike isn't possible, all at a time when publicly members of the government of Israel and some of its U.S. supporters (see here and here, for example) are sending a very different message - that doesn't set off the NTTTD to the same degree.  Because there really is no good reason for Israeli officials to privately soft pedal their very legitimate and pressing worries about Iran. 
 
Q: Do I believe that Benjamin Netanyahu, who was not prime minister in 2005, has actually ruled out a military strike against Iran?
 
A: I have no idea what Benjamin Netanyahu has or has not ruled out with respect to Iran or anything else.  What he has or has not ruled out is beside the point.  Your article was based on "roughly 40 current and past Israeli decision makers" - the implication being that it reflected a broad consensus in Israel decision-making circles. If you believed that consensus was newly-born with the election of Netanyahu, you failed to say so.  And if this was indeed the consensus view you picked up, the new WikiLeaks revelations again beg the question: why did officials in 2005 tell the U.S. government something so different?
 
All of which gets us back to the real question, how does the new information released by WikiLeaks impact the thesis that Israel is likely to bomb Iran in the coming months?  I really do want to know what you think. 
 
Sincerely,
 
Lara Friedman
Director of Policy & Government Relations (really!)
Americans for Peace Now

[Jeffrey Goldberg followed up on this exchange with a second attack on me in the Atlantic, which can be read here.  My response is available here.]


 

10 Comments

"...All of this poses something of a dilemma for me. I of course want to respond, but I don't want to stoop to snark ...which I will endeavor to keep as snark- and sarcasm-free as possible under the circumstances..."

Either snark away, or don't. Considering the level of snark and sarcasm in your open letter, the hand-wringing is just pathetic.

I'd rather not get into a public fight with a prominent journalist who, while I often don't agree with him, I still respect. //

I stopped reading here. This actually is a brilliant confirmation of your views.

Brilliant answer. Given Mr Goldberg's history of promoting the Iraq-WMD falsehoods, it is necessary to be suspicious of his non-so-subtle calls for the US to bomb Iran.
Mr Goldberg is by the way among the wise pundits who supports a negotiated peace with the Palestinians. It is reasonable to think that ending the colonization in the West Bank would make Israel safer in the long run - as opposed to wage "preemptive" wars.

Stephanie comes out and says what Lara wouldn't say but implied with snark, yes snark. This is all about Goldberg being an alleged war-mongerer. No Stephanie, your standard for Goldberg is unfair; he should be judged by what he writes and what he bases his writings on, and not on what you think he's conspiring to do. And his article is far more nuanced than you suggest with your psychoanalysis from afar.

More importantly, where does APN stand in the event that Iran is poised to produce nuclear weapons? That's what I would like to know. I know there is a convenient and standard squishy policy statement on this website that speaks of the failure of the U.S. to properly engage the fascist Iranian regime. (Can we at least be real progressives and call regimes like Iran fascist? Or is that not groovy anymore?) But, assuming arguendo, that Iran is poised to produced nuclear weapons, I trust that APN, as a true friend of Israel, would do more than say at that point: "I told you so, you should have been nicer to the Iranians."

The Goldberg article is nuanced, but it says quite literally that an Israeli strike on Iran nuclear facilities is both consensual among Israeli elites and likely to happen anyway. Goldberg is savvy enough to know that the only consequence of such an article is to advance the cause of the strike, which in turn enhances the likelihood that the US strikes Iran first, to prevent an anti-Israel backlash.

Also, if Iran gets nuclear weapons, the consequence is easily predictable: nothing happens, except that the Iranian people are safer from an US-Israeli attack, just as North Korea doesn't nuke its neighbors or the US. North Korea's regime is way more totalitarian (and outright demented) than Iran's, and it's not nuking people around. Iran will not nuke Israel, for the simple reason that Israel can nuke Iran back.

Any argument that Iranian leaders would love to face nuclear annihilation if they can nuke Israel (or that they "love death") is as stupid, false and vile than the antisemitic trash that is spread daily in the Muslim world.

Iran will get the bomb in any case! but only, if the country really wants it! which is not sure. anyway a country of 80 million people is not a target for the small israel. at best an American attack could delay a two-year nuclear weapons (Robert Gates) for a prohibtif COST OF lifes of Americans, Iranians, Israelis, and Arabs in the ME

I can not understand these people who never tire of wanting war with a country that does not represent a danger. the consequences of an Iranian bomb are very speculative and easily containable, but the tens of thousands of deaths a war with Iran are a certiftude 100%

Mr. Chamberlain: "The consequences of a German takeover of Czechoslovakia are very speculative and easily containable, but the tens of thousands of deaths a war with Germany [would bring] are a certitude 100%."

or how about this:

Mr. Sarraut: "The consequences of a German remilitarization of the the Rhineland are very speculative and easily containable (and surely Germany has the right to put German troops on German soil!), but the tens of thousands of deaths a war with Germany [would bring] are a certitude 100%."

@DBL2: Not every single situation in life or world affairs is like Nazi Germany.

@Stephanie:

I don't think you read Goldberg's article based on your response. The salient point of his article is that, all things equal, based on his discussions with Israeli leaders, he believes that there is more than a 50 percent chance that Iran will be attacked by Israel within the next year. But of course, all things aren't equal, and in fact subsequently Goldberg wrote that in light of Stuxnet he believed that an attack was less likely. You impugn a war-monger motive to that--so be it.

Then you write:

"Any argument that Iranian leaders would love to face nuclear annihilation if they can nuke Israel (or that they "love death") is as stupid, false and vile than the antisemitic trash that is spread daily in the Muslim world.'"

I never made that argument and you suggest the contrary as a substitute for addressing what I did argue, by implying my stupidity, falsehood, and vile nature, i.e. presumably racism aimed at the Islamic world (much of which by the way fears an Iranian nuclear capability as much, if not more, than Israel does).


Finally, now we know you think the U.S. or Israel should do nothing if Iran is poised to obtain nuclear weapons, which is the question I posed to Lara. You think nothing should be done, I disagree but really don't know what should be done. But in your response you expose yourself as someone who leads with vile allegations of racism against the Islamic world as a substitute for discussion. And you are exposed accordingly.

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