I am now a regular contributor to GlobalSecurity.org
My first contribution was an analysis of yesterday's Israeli elections. Here it is:
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090211187-and-the-loser-is-israel-again-by-ori-nir.htm
Ori Nir, a former Israeli journalist, is the spokesman for Americans for Peace Now.
The people of Israel have spoken... with many voices.
Israeli voters did not hand down a verdict yesterday. They have not given a clear mandate to any one politician or political party. They did not enthrone a winner, but they left many losers behind.
The biggest loser - and not for the first time - is the Israeli political system. "The political system is shattered," declared Eitan Haber, the chief editorial writer of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest circulation newspaper, in today's editions. The paper, attempting to capture the outcome of this indecisive election, features on its front page today photos of the two largest parties' leaders - Tzipi Livni of Kadima and Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud - with a large caption that reads: "I won."
Both claimed victory last night, but neither is a clear winner.
True, Livni's Kadima received more Knesset seats - 28 of 120 - compared with Likud's 27 seats. Livni ran an effective campaign and came from behind after having trailed by six or seven seats in public opinion polls only a month ago. Livni "was entitled to feel like the Israeli Obama, even if for only one night," wrote Yedioth's political columnist, Nahum Barnea.
But Livni's victory is short lived. Because in Israel - unlike the U.S. - the winner doesn't take all. In Israel, the winner is not even guaranteed to be the first to attempt forming a government coalition. According to Israeli law, Israel's president assigns that task to the Knesset member that he believes has the best chances to form a coalition. Livni can only form a coalition that includes Netanyahu's Likud. Netanyahu, however, can either form a center-right national unity coalition with Kadima (and other parties) or put together a right wing coalition with several other hawkish and religious parties.
Livni, therefore, may have won the battle, but she lost the war. Most political analysts believe that President Shimon Peres will assign Netanyahu with the task of forming the next government coalition. Netanyahu can easily construct a bloc of more than 61 Knesset members - more than half - to obstruct any attempts by Livni to form a coalition.
And Likud has not said its last word. This morning's tally is not yet final. It does not include the Israeli soldiers' votes. Young soldiers usually support right wing parties and are likely to grant Likud and/or its nationalist partner Israel Beitenu an extra Knesset seat.
But Likud cannot regard itself a real winner either, with less than a quarter of the Israeli parliament's seats and with expectations for a much more decisive victory.
Big losers last night were Israel's traditional Zionist left wing parties. The Labor Party received only 13 Knesset seats and Meretz only three.
The election results are bad news for the region's security and stability. They are very bad news for the Obama administration, which seems determined to push for Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab peace.
Netanyahu has never been a supporter of the two-state solution. His vision is of an "economic peace" between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. Practically, that means improving the living conditions of the Palestinians as an alternative to trying to accommodate their national aspirations for independence and sovereignty. For the Palestinians, the Arab world, the U.S. government and the international community, that is a non-starter.
Netanyahu's rejectionist approach pits the future Israeli government against the Obama administration and sends a belligerent message to the Palestinians and to the Arab world.
The possible inclusion of Avigdor Lieberman's ultra-nationalist, racist Israel Beitenu Party in the future coalition will further provoke and antagonize the Arab world. The Obama administration will not easily find the Israeli ally that it so much needs to push its new regional policy.
The political crisis created by yesterday's elections both underscores and further exacerbates the chronic instability of the Israeli political system. That instability has cut the four-year term of most recent Israeli governments by half. Political experts already predicted last night that Israeli voters will make their way to the polls for another general election in two years or less.
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The first order of business after forming a government should be for the "large" and medium-sized parties to get together and set up a commission to enact serious electoral reform, a solution designed by political scientists rather than by political hacks as the last "fix" was. This can be done by three methods. First and easiest, is simply raise the barrier to entry to the Knesset from two to five or even seven percent. That will eliminate most of the smaller parties and force them to merge with the larger parties or have their electorates simply do it for them. Second, change the voting system from PR-list to the PR-STV system used in Ireland and Northern Ireland in which each voter has several preferences but his vote is only counted once. Israel would then be divided into either 20 six-member or 24 five-member or 30 four-member constituencies reducing the number of parties to approximately five or six "players." Third, simply elect half of the Knesset seats under the present list system and half under the Anglo-American first-past-the-post system of single-member constituencies. This would help to rebuild the main parties.
The next order of business is for the Center-Left to rebuild itself through a series of mergers. Labor should merge with the Livni wing of Kadima and with part of Meretz. The far left in Meretz can then merge with Hadash to form a single party or joint list. A joint Kadima-Labor Center-Left party should receive more than thirty seats in the next election. If Meretz wants to retain its identity, its new mission will be to re-evangelize the new Center-Left party to prepare it once more for a two-state solution when the Palestinians are ready for one.