Hard Questions, Tough Answers

Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent APN's views and policy positions.

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the two territorial issues PM Netanyahu’s raised in his recent Washington visit - recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan, and a unilateral withdrawal on the West Bank - are serious; if the Netanyahu government's decision to ban the so-called Northern Branch of the Israeli Islamist movement because of incitement there is also related; and whether this approach plays into the hands of people like the Swedish foreign minister, who recently argued that there is a link between ISIS’s terrorism and the plight of the Palestinians.

 

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November 16, 2015 - The Paris Attacks and more

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This week, Alpher discusses what strategic significance the Paris Massacre might be to the Islamic State; whether it is a sign that ISIS is losing in the Levant; what other countries can we expect ISIS to target now; whether the constellation emerging after the Paris attacks affect Israel’s security; why the former Yemeni prime minister Abdul Karim al-Eryani, who died at age 81 in his Cairo exile, was significant, and what this tells us about the future of Yemen.

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This week, Alpher discusses -in advance of the meeting- Netanyahu’s mood as he approached the meeting between him and President Obama, against a backdrop of an Arab Middle East in turmoil and personal relations that have soured over Iran and the Palestinian issue; Dr. Ran Baratz's appointment by Netanyahu as his new spokesman as head of the National Public Diplomacy Directorate; assuming the Russian passenger jet that crashed in Egyptian Sinai was brought down by an act of terrorism, how serious an event was this; and how strong an effect might the European Union's labeling of commercial goods made in West Bank and Golan settlements have on Israeli policy toward the Palestinians.

 

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November 01, 2015 - Not learning from Rabin’s assassination; Syria escalates

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This week, Alpher discusses whether, in the wake of the mass demonstration in Tel Aviv marking the twentieth anniversary of the murder of Yitzhak Rabin and his assassin’s brother “celebrating” the occasion by suggesting that God remove President Rivlin and his associates from the world, Israel has learned anything from Rabin’s death; if diplomatic negotiations in Vienna regarding an agreed solution for Syria have any meaning, given Russian bombing in southern Syria near the Israeli border, Iran sending more and more troops to Syria, the US sending 50 commandos, and Israel reportedly still intercepting Syrian arms shipments to Hezbollah; a "compare and contrast" of US and Russian military behavior in Syria; how Russian military involvement affects Israel’s decision-making regarding Syria; and potential factors for change there in addition to the Russian and Iranian military presence in Syria and the new US token deployment;

 

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the set of understandings between Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority regarding the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif acheived by Secretary of State Kerry will end the violence; the overall effect of the mini-intifada of the past month; why Jordan’s King Abdullah couldn’t play a more active role, without recourse to Kerry; what we are to make of bewildering statements by Netanyahu, to a World Zionist Congress audience in a speech in English, that the Mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, suggested to Hitler in 1941 that he annihilate the Jews (“burn them”) rather than expelling them and that as prime minister he has built far less in the settlements than his predecessors;

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October 19, 2015 - The escalation of violence and "Intifada lite?"

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the new intifada that is apparently developing has any symbolic significance in regard to the 20 year anniversary of the Rabin assassination; is the fact that Netanyahu’s government is building walls and imposing partial closures around Jerusalem’s outlying Arab neighborhoods a kind of re-dividing of Jerusalem and couldn’t this be a potentially positive step toward peace; if it is fair to say that the fear instilled by previous rounds of intifada violence helped usher in rounds of negotiations and Israeli concessions previously, could that happen again this time; the role of the international community; why the initiative attributed to the French to introduce an international police observer force to the Temple Mount appears to be a hastily conceived non-starter; and how to characterize the violence at this point in time.

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October 12, 2015 - The Temple Mount and the current wave of violence

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This week, Alpher discusses the arguments that the Temple Mount and the al-Aqsa Mosque are at the heart of the current wave of terror that began in Jerusalem and explains what happened; PM Netanyahu's banning both Jewish and Arab members of Knesset from visiting the Mount and, earlier, banning two of the extremist Israeli Islamist movements; why shouldn’t Jews who wish to do so be allowed to pray on the Mount; what Netanyahu’s options are; and sums up the characteristics of the violence now that we are two weeks into this wave and there is no sign of it letting up

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This week, Alpher discusses whether we are witnessing the beginning of a new intifada; how Abbas’s UN General Assembly speech figures into the violence; if there was a prominent message in Netanyahu’s UN speech; if it is possible to draw any conclusions regarding the evolution of Israeli societal values from the appointment of Shin Bet deputy head Roni Alsheich to head the Israel Police; and, with the Russians and Iranians apparently expanding their deployment in Syria, an outline of the emerging strategic picture.

 

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September 30, 2015 - The Syrian issue at the UN General Assembly

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This week, Alpher discusses whether there is even the possibility of progress regarding Syria at the UN; how to characterize Putin’s “take” on the region; how this approach contrasts with Obama’s; assuming Russia and the US do not join forces in Syria, what Russia’s military options are; where Israel is in this picture

 

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September 21, 2015 - Netanyahu goes to Moscow while Jerusalem is rocked by mini-intifada

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This week, Alpher discusses how Russia’s military buildup in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia and the consequent American and Israeli concern has this played out since last week; if we are witnessing escalation into a third intifada in Jerusalem and the West Bank; what triggered the escalation; and at the strategic level, what the dangers are for Israel of this “mini-intifada.”

 

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