Hard Questions, Tough Answers

Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent APN's views and policy positions.

October 19, 2015 - The escalation of violence and "Intifada lite?"

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the new intifada that is apparently developing has any symbolic significance in regard to the 20 year anniversary of the Rabin assassination; is the fact that Netanyahu’s government is building walls and imposing partial closures around Jerusalem’s outlying Arab neighborhoods a kind of re-dividing of Jerusalem and couldn’t this be a potentially positive step toward peace; if it is fair to say that the fear instilled by previous rounds of intifada violence helped usher in rounds of negotiations and Israeli concessions previously, could that happen again this time; the role of the international community; why the initiative attributed to the French to introduce an international police observer force to the Temple Mount appears to be a hastily conceived non-starter; and how to characterize the violence at this point in time.

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October 12, 2015 - The Temple Mount and the current wave of violence

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This week, Alpher discusses the arguments that the Temple Mount and the al-Aqsa Mosque are at the heart of the current wave of terror that began in Jerusalem and explains what happened; PM Netanyahu's banning both Jewish and Arab members of Knesset from visiting the Mount and, earlier, banning two of the extremist Israeli Islamist movements; why shouldn’t Jews who wish to do so be allowed to pray on the Mount; what Netanyahu’s options are; and sums up the characteristics of the violence now that we are two weeks into this wave and there is no sign of it letting up

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This week, Alpher discusses whether we are witnessing the beginning of a new intifada; how Abbas’s UN General Assembly speech figures into the violence; if there was a prominent message in Netanyahu’s UN speech; if it is possible to draw any conclusions regarding the evolution of Israeli societal values from the appointment of Shin Bet deputy head Roni Alsheich to head the Israel Police; and, with the Russians and Iranians apparently expanding their deployment in Syria, an outline of the emerging strategic picture.

 

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September 30, 2015 - The Syrian issue at the UN General Assembly

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This week, Alpher discusses whether there is even the possibility of progress regarding Syria at the UN; how to characterize Putin’s “take” on the region; how this approach contrasts with Obama’s; assuming Russia and the US do not join forces in Syria, what Russia’s military options are; where Israel is in this picture

 

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September 21, 2015 - Netanyahu goes to Moscow while Jerusalem is rocked by mini-intifada

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This week, Alpher discusses how Russia’s military buildup in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia and the consequent American and Israeli concern has this played out since last week; if we are witnessing escalation into a third intifada in Jerusalem and the West Bank; what triggered the escalation; and at the strategic level, what the dangers are for Israel of this “mini-intifada.”

 

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September 13, 2015 - More on Syria: refugees and Russians

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This week, Alpher discusses the pros and cons of Israel taking in refugees from Syria; if there is a Palestinian angle to the Syrian refugee crisis; and what are the potential consequences for Israel of the arrival of Russian military forces in Syria.

 

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This week, Alpher discusses the impact of the Iran nuclear deal on the ongoing chaos in Syria, including diplomatic initiatives; the Saudi role; ambivalence in the US-Turkish approach to Syria; Given Russia's and Iran's apparent willingness to consider compromising on Assad’s rule if the conditions are right, is Assad willing; and where does all this leave Israel.

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August 31, 2015 - The Israel Police and the future of “internal” security

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This week, Alpher discusses why a huge controversy has erupted over the appointment of former IDF brigadier general, Gal Hirsch, to head the Israel Police; the legacy of the 2006 Second Lebanon War; what justifies rehabilitating Hirsch and promoting him by two ranks and why can’t the police produce a suitable commander from within its own ranks; where the security consultancy industry enters the picture; the future role of the police vis-a-vis the Palestinian issue and Israel’s security;

 

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August 24, 2015 - Ehud Barak, Iran, PIJ and Israel’s response

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This week, Alpher discusses why Ehud Barak made his dramatic remarks about attacking Iran and why he made them now; if there are potential strategic ramifications, or if this is merely one more case of a frustrated ex-politician sounding off; whether last week’s rocket attacks on Israel from the Syrian Golan and Israel’s response suggest the possibility of imminent escalation of hostilities between Iranian proxies and Israel, and if the timing bespeaks a link to the Iran nuclear deal; actions that are perceived by Palestinians as Israeli provocations, which have resulted recently in increased instances of stone-throwing and fire-bombing against Israeli vehicles and knife attacks on IDF soldiers.

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August 17, 2015 - Israel, the Iran deal and Diaspora Jewry

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This week, Alpher discusses the mixed messages we seem to be getting from Israel regarding the Iran deal with Netanyahu and even Herzog and Livni vociferously opposing it, and many in the security and academic establishments either equivocating or supporting it; the views of the Israeli majority on the Iran deal; why Israeli political opposition leaders Herzog and Livni seemingly support Netanyahu’s campaign in Congress; and how to explain Netanyahu’s appointment last week of a prominent right-wing Italian Jewess as Israel’s ambassador to that country.

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