APN's special Israeli election polls review
Friday March 13, 2015
Quote of the day:
"We will respond to the last post Bibi made before Sabbath and we will tell him sweet goodbye
words."
--Israelis prepare to part from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in a Facebook event.**
Election 2015 Polls Review:
With four days to go, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is now expected to lose the upcoming election following the latest polls in today’s Hebrew newspapers. The Shin Bet is also reading the polls because in recent days it has increased the security around Zionist Camp co-leader Isaac Herzog, who will likely be the next Prime Minister of Israel, notes Maariv’s Ben Caspit. The commentators in today's papers now assumed Herzog would win and his options: will he offer Netanyahu to join a unity government with a rotating premiership and if not, what coalition will he form in light of the challenges of the conflicting interests of parties that would join him?
Netanyahu’s address to Congress on March 3rd did not have the desired effect and Likud is now three to four mandates behind the Zionist Camp. This week polls showed Likud dropped to between 20-22 mandates, depending on the poll, while Zionist Camp has 24-26 mandates. The gap was particularly marked in the polls released today by Yedioth and Maariv. Yedioth’s poll today put Zionist Camp at 26 and Likud at 22 with Joint (Arab) List in third place with 13 mandates. Maariv’s poll published today shows Zionist Camp with 25 mandates, Likud with 21 and Joint Arab List and Yesh Atid tying with 13 seats in the Knesset. The gap of four is twice as much as Maariv’s poll last Friday. Netanyahu’s popularity has dropped as well.
The rest of the parties have maintained approximately the same number of mandates, with no sharp fluctuations, as Project 61 shows. The Joint (Arab) List, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, and Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi are about tied with between 12-13 mandates, with the Joint List slightly ahead and Habayit Hayehudi slightly behind the other two. The Kulanu party of ex-Likudnik Moshe Kahlon is up one now at 9 mandates. The two ultra-Orthodox parties remain stable: Shas with 7 or 8 mandates and Yehadut Hatorah (UTJ) with 6-7, despite UTJ’s big election rally this week. Avigdor Lieberman’s ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu gets 5 or 6 and Meretz, the only left-wing Zionist party, and Yachad, the most radical right-wing party, are both close to the threshold edge with 4 or 5 mandates.
And whereas last week, the right-wing bloc was larger than the left-wing bloc, even when the Zionist Camp was ahead of Likud, now the Zionist Camp bloc is bigger - made up of Zionist Camp, Joint Arab List, Yesh Atid and Meretz (56 seats according to both Yedioth and Maariv polls) is larger. But neither the Zionist Camp’s bloc nor the right-wing bloc of Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas (50 seats according to Yedioth poll, 48 according to the Maariv poll) can form an obstructive bloc without help. Zionist Camp needs only the support of either Kulanu or the ultra-Orthodox UTJ. But the right-wing bloc needs both. Both Kulanu and UTJ could go either way. In a Jerusalem Post interview published also in Maariv today, Netanyahu said "there is a real danger that Likud will lose the elections" and that he doesn't believe in unity governments.
Netanyahu’s personal popularity has also dropped. According to today’s Maariv poll, 48% said they don’t want Netanyahu, 43% do and 11% are uncertain. But when it comes to a choice between Netanyahu and Herzog for Prime Minister, 50% chose Netanyahu, while 34% chose Herzog and 16% said they did not know, in an Army Radio poll published Wednesday. However, that too may have since changed. However, most Israelis (72%), regardless of who they want to be prime minister, believe that Israel “needs a change of direction.”
The tide against Netanyahu is getting stronger and more pro-active. Today, half a million free copies of a satirical anti-Netanyahu paper will be distributed by a movement called the ‘Silent Majority.’ The freebie, called ‘Israel Tomorrow,’ which is also a play on the name of the pro-Netanyahu freebie, ‘Israel Today,’ (Sheldon Adelson’s Israel Hayom) newspaper. (Maariv)
**And by this morning, over 2000 people joined a Facebook ‘event’ created Wednesday night to ‘Part from Bibi’s Facebook Page’ (as Prime Minister). The page says: “On the last weekend before the elections, we will part from Bibi on Facebook. We will go to his profile and explain to him what the people (of Israel) really think about him. We will respond to the last post Bibi made before Saturday and we will tell him sweet goodbye words. Then we'll wait to see the hysterical reaction - will Bibi delete the wishes of the people? Will he block the people from his Facebook page?? On Shabbat ????”
There were also creative ways to encourage people to vote. An FB page created by women called “Hot Vote - The naked truth, a peek behind the screen” that shows the chosen political party written mainly on women’s chests. The page was created by the young women who created a similar 'I love IDF' Facebook page during Operation Protective Edge. Also interesting is the cartoon video clip encouraging Arab voters to vote because otherwise ‘Bennett and Lieberman will gain.' It shows the two ministers talking (in Arabic) about killing Arabs and next to them it’s written in Arabic “Transfer” - in reference to the feared Lieberman plan to transfer them to the PA.
With four days to go, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is now expected to lose the upcoming election following the latest polls in today’s Hebrew newspapers. The Shin Bet is also reading the polls because in recent days it has increased the security around Zionist Camp co-leader Isaac Herzog, who will likely be the next Prime Minister of Israel, notes Maariv’s Ben Caspit. The commentators in today's papers now assumed Herzog would win and his options: will he offer Netanyahu to join a unity government with a rotating premiership and if not, what coalition will he form in light of the challenges of the conflicting interests of parties that would join him?
Netanyahu’s address to Congress on March 3rd did not have the desired effect and Likud is now three to four mandates behind the Zionist Camp. This week polls showed Likud dropped to between 20-22 mandates, depending on the poll, while Zionist Camp has 24-26 mandates. The gap was particularly marked in the polls released today by Yedioth and Maariv. Yedioth’s poll today put Zionist Camp at 26 and Likud at 22 with Joint (Arab) List in third place with 13 mandates. Maariv’s poll published today shows Zionist Camp with 25 mandates, Likud with 21 and Joint Arab List and Yesh Atid tying with 13 seats in the Knesset. The gap of four is twice as much as Maariv’s poll last Friday. Netanyahu’s popularity has dropped as well.
The rest of the parties have maintained approximately the same number of mandates, with no sharp fluctuations, as Project 61 shows. The Joint (Arab) List, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, and Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi are about tied with between 12-13 mandates, with the Joint List slightly ahead and Habayit Hayehudi slightly behind the other two. The Kulanu party of ex-Likudnik Moshe Kahlon is up one now at 9 mandates. The two ultra-Orthodox parties remain stable: Shas with 7 or 8 mandates and Yehadut Hatorah (UTJ) with 6-7, despite UTJ’s big election rally this week. Avigdor Lieberman’s ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu gets 5 or 6 and Meretz, the only left-wing Zionist party, and Yachad, the most radical right-wing party, are both close to the threshold edge with 4 or 5 mandates.
And whereas last week, the right-wing bloc was larger than the left-wing bloc, even when the Zionist Camp was ahead of Likud, now the Zionist Camp bloc is bigger - made up of Zionist Camp, Joint Arab List, Yesh Atid and Meretz (56 seats according to both Yedioth and Maariv polls) is larger. But neither the Zionist Camp’s bloc nor the right-wing bloc of Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas (50 seats according to Yedioth poll, 48 according to the Maariv poll) can form an obstructive bloc without help. Zionist Camp needs only the support of either Kulanu or the ultra-Orthodox UTJ. But the right-wing bloc needs both. Both Kulanu and UTJ could go either way. In a Jerusalem Post interview published also in Maariv today, Netanyahu said "there is a real danger that Likud will lose the elections" and that he doesn't believe in unity governments.
Netanyahu’s personal popularity has also dropped. According to today’s Maariv poll, 48% said they don’t want Netanyahu, 43% do and 11% are uncertain. But when it comes to a choice between Netanyahu and Herzog for Prime Minister, 50% chose Netanyahu, while 34% chose Herzog and 16% said they did not know, in an Army Radio poll published Wednesday. However, that too may have since changed. However, most Israelis (72%), regardless of who they want to be prime minister, believe that Israel “needs a change of direction.”
The tide against Netanyahu is getting stronger and more pro-active. Today, half a million free copies of a satirical anti-Netanyahu paper will be distributed by a movement called the ‘Silent Majority.’ The freebie, called ‘Israel Tomorrow,’ which is also a play on the name of the pro-Netanyahu freebie, ‘Israel Today,’ (Sheldon Adelson’s Israel Hayom) newspaper. (Maariv)
**And by this morning, over 2000 people joined a Facebook ‘event’ created Wednesday night to ‘Part from Bibi’s Facebook Page’ (as Prime Minister). The page says: “On the last weekend before the elections, we will part from Bibi on Facebook. We will go to his profile and explain to him what the people (of Israel) really think about him. We will respond to the last post Bibi made before Saturday and we will tell him sweet goodbye words. Then we'll wait to see the hysterical reaction - will Bibi delete the wishes of the people? Will he block the people from his Facebook page?? On Shabbat ????”
There were also creative ways to encourage people to vote. An FB page created by women called “Hot Vote - The naked truth, a peek behind the screen” that shows the chosen political party written mainly on women’s chests. The page was created by the young women who created a similar 'I love IDF' Facebook page during Operation Protective Edge. Also interesting is the cartoon video clip encouraging Arab voters to vote because otherwise ‘Bennett and Lieberman will gain.' It shows the two ministers talking (in Arabic) about killing Arabs and next to them it’s written in Arabic “Transfer” - in reference to the feared Lieberman plan to transfer them to the PA.
Prepared for APN by Orly Halpern, independent freelance journalist based in Jerusalem.