Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent APN's views and policy positions.

Q. Iran and Hezbollah are threatening to launch a major attack on Israel, yet your title suggests the possibility of ending the war on all seven fronts? And by the way, how do you count seven fronts?

A. Let’s start with the second question. Israel currently faces conflict with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, Hamas and additional Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Iranian-proxy militias in Iraq, Hezbollah units in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen and recently in Iraq as well. That count ignores Iranian attempts to develop a hostile front with smuggled ordnance and Islamist manpower in and from Jordan.

As to the threat of an Iran-Hezbollah attack in retaliation for high-level assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, two weeks ago we detailed the reasons why it is not likely to happen. Ever since, we have witnessed US and other deterrence-oriented deployments in the region, Israeli threats of escalation, lots of Iranian and Hezbollah empty threats and bluster and, most recently, expressions of readiness to abstain from attacking Israel as long as hostage/ceasefire negotiations are being held. 

And there has been no attack, despite considerable panic among the Israeli civilian population.

In short, this is one of those tense, multi-dimensional conflict situations that is sometimes optimistically described as making lemonade out of lemons. Witness the current strenuous US-led ceasefire/hostage deal efforts.

Q. That implies that a hostage/ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas could launch a chain of positive developments . . .

A. Indeed, in this optimistic telling, a hostage/ceasefire deal with Hamas would generate a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and with the Houthis in the Red Sea, some sort of positive Iranian gesture, and progress toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Threats of boycott against Israel and accusations of war crimes would subside. The war would be over for now; Israel would officially have a new Saudi ally against the forces of militant Islam.

To be clear: even without any of these spinoff strategic benefits, the most basic Israeli, Zionist and indeed humanitarian values and principles require that the hostages be rescued and redeemed.

Q. If only it were that simple and straightforward . . .

A. Worse. At the time of writing, there is no hostage/ceasefire deal. The likelihood of a negotiating breakthrough is slim. 

Moreover, even if there is a deal sometime soon, there is nothing to indicate that aggression against Israel by the Iran-led Axis of Resistance will end. After all, the parties to that alliance--Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Shiite militias in the Levant, not to mention their Iranian leader and provider of arms and money--all openly subscribe to the militant Islamist demand that Israel disappear. Their impressive arms buildup and logistics projects--note the Hezbollah tunnel bases unveiled last week--represent a long-term Iranian investment in aggression.

A ‘deal’, then, can only be a ceasefire; not peace. In this sense, Israel’s war with the Axis of Resistance cannot be ‘over’ and cannot end in peace; only a respite. Looking at those seven fronts, it is fair to day that the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7, 2023 has expanded into a regional Islamist offensive, as yet somewhat hesitant and limited, that no one knows how to reverse.

Q. The unprecedented direct Iran missile and drone attack against Israel back on April 14 was thwarted by a counter-alliance led by the United States and comprising Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and of course Israel itself. Currently that counter-alliance has stepped up again to deter another Iran/Hezbollah attack.

A. Considering that it was highly controversial assassinations credited to Israel that inspired the current Iran/Hezbollah threats, this readiness on the part of the West and the moderate Arabs to line up with Israel against Iran and its proxies is notable. It appears to reflect recognition that Islamist aggression will not stop with Israel. No matter how reckless the assassinations, how badly managed Israel’s war with Hamas and how repugnant and anti-democratic the Netanyahu government, when it comes to countering militant Islam, Israel has friends.

Q. Of the seven fronts you mention, only four are well documented: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Can you expand on the nature and importance of the others?

A. The others--the West Bank, Syria and Iraq--are equally important. They are not going to go away. They all represent Iran-backed attempts to generate aggression against Israel from the east. Iran is engineering arms smuggling from Jordan across the Jordan Valley to some West Bank Islamist militants. 

The West Bank is further complicated because it also involves Israeli settler violence, at times backed by IDF and Israel Police units, against Palestinian civilians. PM Netanyahu’s Kahanist-fascist ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, are exploiting their authority to abet a land grab perpetrated by marauding settlers in officially sanctioned ‘ranches’ set up on Palestinian grazing lands. 

Any wonder that Hamas and other Palestinian extremists are responding violently? The violence has already overflowed from the West Bank across the green line armistice line into Israel. Indeed, alone among the seven fronts, the West Bank is hosting a clash of not one but two extremist messianic movements: Hamas on behalf of the Palestinians and fellow Islamists as far away as Iran and Yemen; and Israeli settlers, representing the government of Israel, who are bent on Judaizing and annexing the territory at the expense of Palestinian civilians.

As for Syria and Iraq, there, alongside Shiite militias sponsored by Iran and in some cases augmented by Afghani and other Shiite extremists brought in by Iran, we find Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthi units as well. It is here that we encounter the (thus far) ultimate expression of integration and cooperation among the components of Iran’s Axis of Resistance.

None of this will go away or melt into the woodwork just because, and if, Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Gaza Strip.

Q. Bottom line?

A. With or without a hostage deal, we may be at a turning point in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas. A few tentative lessons and conclusions can be offered.

First, Hamas may have launched the war, but the mistakes of the Netanyahu government, the IDF and the Shin Bet allowed it to happen. With the exception of a handful of IDF officers, no one in Israel has thus far been held to account. This says something extremely negative and worrisome about Israel’s security and political infrastructure as currently constituted.

Second, Hamas failed last October in its goal of igniting an instant regional war involving the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Yet looked at ten months later, that war has indeed expanded regionally--albeit on a limited basis, but a basis that could further expand overnight.

Third, a principal reason for the limited nature of the war’s expansion thus far is the readiness of a western and moderate Arab coalition to stand by Israel against Iran. This, despite the highly problematic composition and behavior of the Netanyahu government and the heavy toll in Arab civilian losses. At the time of writing, this support along with additional factors like Israeli deterrence explains the absence of an Iran-Hezbollah military response to the Netanyahu government’s provocative assassinations.

Fourth, taboos that for decades defined the limits of Israel’s wars have been broken. Entire regions of Israel have been evacuated, with well over 100,000 Israelis rendered refugees. Iran has attacked Israeli territory directly; so have the Yemeni Houthis, from an even greater distance. The IDF has killed tens of thousands of enemy civilians used by Hamas as human shields. International legal institutions are charging Israel with war crimes even as the war continues.

Finally, in the Israel/Palestine arena we are witnessing an escalating war that increasingly involves militant religious forces, both Muslim and Jewish. A ceasefire/hostage deal could give all the parties a breather. But probably little more. If there is no hostage deal--sadly, a realistic assessment reflecting leadership intransigence on both sides--the war will almost certainly expand.

And this contingency, in turn, is liable to affect upcoming US presidential and congressional elections.