Hard Questions, Tough Answers

Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent APN's views and policy positions.

January 18, 2016 - Basic questions on the broadest issues

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This week, Alpher discusses the Iran nuclear deal being fully implemented, with sanctions lifted earlier than originally predicted, and the US and Iran exchanging detainees; where these leave Washington’s relations with Israel and the Sunni Arab states; and the essentially Sunni Arab movements of Islamic State and al-Qaeda and the collapse of several Arab states - how and why all this began five years ago and whether we have figured that out so we can avoid repeating past mistakes.

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January 11, 2016 - States-within-a-state

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This week, Alpher discusses what strategic insights regarding Jewish-Arab relations in Israel can be derived from the manhunt and death of Neshat Melhem, the Dizengoff shooter; whether Israel can afford a larger police force; why Wadi Ara is particularly prone to pro-Palestinian sentiments; what did PM Netanyahu mean when he termed the Israeli Arabs a “state within a state;” whether this sort of state-within-a-state situation is unique to Israel in the Middle East; and how did the “state within a state” situation in Saudi Arabia and Iran find expression last week in the crisis in relations between the two.

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This week, Alpher discusses what we can expect in Israel and Israel-US relations in 2016; the notion that the Palestinian issue increasingly will become an internal Israeli affair; how the Arab and Muslim worlds will respond to this and if we will witness external aggression against Israel; and prospects for some sort of international political agreement regarding Syria, spearheaded by the US and Russia

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This week, Alpher discusses why the most senior ministers of Israel’s right-wing coalition are taking a strong stand against terrorist attacks by extremist fringe settlers, even though it is a pro-settler coalition; whether new political and ideological lines have been drawn and the political right woken up to the excesses of the settlement enterprise; what are the new regional dynamics and alignments emerging from the Islamic State challenge to the Middle East across the region, with Turkey and Israel talking again, Saudi Arabia establishing a 34-member Islamic coalition, and Israel reportedly assassinating a Hezbollah terrorist in the all-but-occupied (by Russia) Syrian capital of Damascus; and where Israel is in this dynamic.

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December 21, 2015 - What the “Breaking the Silence” controversy is really about

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This week, Alpher discusses why the Israeli political right is so brutally attacking the Breaking the Silence NGO, and why now; whether mainstream Israelis are defending Breaking the Silence; why is the foreign funding a problem, whether the settlers and right-wing NGOs are funded from abroad; the allegations regarding exaggerations and supporting BDS; the oft-quoted statement that the IDF is the most moral army in the world; what he suggests regarding Breaking the Silence and the right-wing campaign against it; the bigger picture: the right wing and the occupation.

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December 14, 2015 - Rivlin, Yossi Cohen, the Mossad, and Iran

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This week, Alpher discusses who is the real Reuven Rivlin and how much influence does he wield back home in Jerusalem; does Yossi Cohen's appointment as new head of the Mossad tell us something about the future direction of Israel’s overall security strategy; what will be Cohen’s primary intelligence collection and operational priorities in the Mossad in the years ahead; how can one explain Tehran removing most of its Revolutionary Guards Quds forces from the Syrian battlefield and sending them home to Iran.

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November 30, 2015 - Israel and the UAE, Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey and Russia

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the opening of a diplomatic mission in the United Arab Emirates is a breakthrough; is the Palestinian issue being pushed to the back burner internationally despite the current protest wave of violence that reflects a high degree of Palestinian public despair; and how we should read the fallout from Turkey’s downing of a Russian combat aircraft last weekend.

 

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This week, Alpher discusses whether the two territorial issues PM Netanyahu’s raised in his recent Washington visit - recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan, and a unilateral withdrawal on the West Bank - are serious; if the Netanyahu government's decision to ban the so-called Northern Branch of the Israeli Islamist movement because of incitement there is also related; and whether this approach plays into the hands of people like the Swedish foreign minister, who recently argued that there is a link between ISIS’s terrorism and the plight of the Palestinians.

 

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November 16, 2015 - The Paris Attacks and more

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This week, Alpher discusses what strategic significance the Paris Massacre might be to the Islamic State; whether it is a sign that ISIS is losing in the Levant; what other countries can we expect ISIS to target now; whether the constellation emerging after the Paris attacks affect Israel’s security; why the former Yemeni prime minister Abdul Karim al-Eryani, who died at age 81 in his Cairo exile, was significant, and what this tells us about the future of Yemen.

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This week, Alpher discusses -in advance of the meeting- Netanyahu’s mood as he approached the meeting between him and President Obama, against a backdrop of an Arab Middle East in turmoil and personal relations that have soured over Iran and the Palestinian issue; Dr. Ran Baratz's appointment by Netanyahu as his new spokesman as head of the National Public Diplomacy Directorate; assuming the Russian passenger jet that crashed in Egyptian Sinai was brought down by an act of terrorism, how serious an event was this; and how strong an effect might the European Union's labeling of commercial goods made in West Bank and Golan settlements have on Israeli policy toward the Palestinians.

 

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