Q. On Sunday April 30, the Knesset returned for its summer session after a month-long holiday break. Why is the coalition now postponing legislation for its ‘judicial reform’? Did the anti-reform demonstrators win? Did PM Netanyahu get cold feet?
A. The coalition is postponing its judicial reform legislation for a number of interlocking reasons. It committed publicly, when the spring legislative session ended a month ago, to participate in compromise negotiations at President Herzog’s residence that could continue at least until the end of May. Those negotiations have neither succeeded fully nor failed. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly committed to allowing time for them to succeed. Basically, this commitment reflects recognition that months of anti-reform demonstrations succeeded in obliging the coalition to at least temporarily rethink its program and its priorities.
Then too, the Netanyahu government must pass a budget by the end of May or, by law, the Knesset will be dissolved. This could fully occupy the legislators in the coming weeks. The task is not simple because budget-preparation has been neglected hitherto in favor of the thus-far abortive judicial reform effort. Then too, in order to form this coalition Netanyahu made extravagant commitments to his partners whose fulfilment could generate a huge inflationary deficit. Note that the previous Bennett-Lapid coalition left Netanyahu a budget surplus.
The security situation is also demanding attention. Demonstrations against the government have echoed within the IDF. This sends Israel’s neighbors a problematic message. The Islamists among them, led by Iran, believe they perceive a weakening of Israeli deterrence due to internal dissent, exacerbated by a weakening of the American security commitment in the Middle East. Last week’s appearance by Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, peering into Israel through the northern border fence with Hezbollah and Lebanon, seemed eerily symbolic.
Months of massive anti-reform demonstrations and polls unfavorable to Netanyahu, his coalition and its judicial reform initiative have indeed left their mark. The prime minister appears to be caught between his need to feed the beast of his extremist coalition partners and his extremist minister of justice on the one hand, and, on the other, his need to extricate himself politically from a disastrous initiative that has pitted many of the country’s key institutions--security, finance, judicial--against him. In characteristic Netanyahu fashion, he is playing for time, albeit for only a month. Note that the coalition has registered no legislative achievements whatsoever during four months in office.